Tag: long covid prognosis

A machine learning approach identifies distinct early-symptom cluster phenotypes which correlate with hospitalization, failure to return to activities, and prolonged COVID-19 symptoms

Abstract:

Background: Accurate COVID-19 prognosis is a critical aspect of acute and long-term clinical management. We identified discrete clusters of early stage-symptoms which may delineate groups with distinct disease severity phenotypes, including risk of developing long-term symptoms and associated inflammatory profiles.

Methods: 1,273 SARS-CoV-2 positive U.S. Military Health System beneficiaries with quantitative symptom scores (FLU-PRO Plus) were included in this analysis. We employed machine-learning approaches to identify symptom clusters and compared risk of hospitalization, long-term symptoms, as well as peak CRP and IL-6 concentrations.

Results: We identified three distinct clusters of participants based on their FLU-PRO Plus symptoms: cluster 1 (“Nasal cluster”) is highly correlated with reporting runny/stuffy nose and sneezing, cluster 2 (“Sensory cluster”) is highly correlated with loss of smell or taste, and cluster 3 (“Respiratory/Systemic cluster”) is highly correlated with the respiratory (cough, trouble breathing, among others) and systemic (body aches, chills, among others) domain symptoms. Participants in the Respiratory/Systemic cluster were twice as likely as those in the Nasal cluster to have been hospitalized, and 1.5 times as likely to report that they had not returned-to-activities, which remained significant after controlling for confounding covariates (P < 0.01). Respiratory/Systemic and Sensory clusters were more likely to have symptoms at six-months post-symptom-onset (P = 0.03). We observed higher peak CRP and IL-6 in the Respiratory/Systemic cluster (P < 0.01).

Conclusions: We identified early symptom profiles potentially associated with hospitalization, return-to-activities, long-term symptoms, and inflammatory profiles. These findings may assist in patient prognosis, including prediction of long COVID risk.

Source: Epsi NJ, Powers JH, Lindholm DA, Mende K, Malloy A, Ganesan A, Huprikar N, Lalani T, Smith A, Mody RM, Jones MU, Bazan SE, Colombo RE, Colombo CJ, Ewers EC, Larson DT, Berjohn CM, Maldonado CJ, Blair PW, Chenoweth J, Saunders DL, Livezey J, Maves RC, Sanchez Edwards M, Rozman JS, Simons MP, Tribble DR, Agan BK, Burgess TH, Pollett SD; EPICC COVID-19 Cohort Study Group. A machine learning approach identifies distinct early-symptom cluster phenotypes which correlate with hospitalization, failure to return to activities, and prolonged COVID-19 symptoms. PLoS One. 2023 Feb 9;18(2):e0281272. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281272. PMID: 36757946; PMCID: PMC9910657. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9910657/ (Full text)

Functional decline, long term symptoms and course of frailty at 3-months follow-up in COVID-19 older survivors, a prospective observational cohort study

Abstract:

Background: Aging is one of the most important prognostic factors increasing the risk of clinical severity and mortality of COVID-19 infection. However, among patients over 75 years, little is known about post-acute functional decline.

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with functional decline 3 months after COVID-19 onset, to identify long term COVID-19 symptoms and transitions between frailty statesafter COVID-19 onset in older hospitalized patients.

Methods: This prospective observational study included COVID-19 patients consecutively hospitalized from March to December 2020 in Acute Geriatric Ward in Nantes University Hospital. Functional decline, frailty status and long term symptoms were assessed at 3 month follow up. Functional status was assessed using the Activities of Daily Living simplified scale (ADL). Frailty status was evaluated using Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). We performed multivariable analyses to identify factors associated with functional decline.

Results: Among the 318 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 infection, 198 were alive 3 months after discharge. At 3 months, functional decline occurred in 69 (36%) patients. In multivariable analysis, a significant association was found between functional decline and stroke (OR = 4,57, p = 0,003), history of depressive disorder (OR = 3,05, p = 0,016), complications (OR = 2,24, p = 0,039), length of stay (OR = 1,05, p = 0,025) and age (OR = 1,08, p = 0,028). At 3 months, 75 patients described long-term symptoms (49.0%). Of those with frailty (CFS scores ≥5) at 3-months follow-up, 30% were not frail at baseline. Increasing frailty defined by a worse CFS state between baseline and 3 months occurred in 41 patients (26.8%).

Conclusions: This study provides evidence that both the severity of the COVID-19 infection and preexisting medical conditions correlates with a functional decline at distance of the infection. This encourages practitioners to establish discharge personalized care plan based on a multidimensional geriatric assessment and in parallel on clinical severity evaluation.

Source: Prampart S, Le Gentil S, Bureau ML, Macchi C, Leroux C, Chapelet G, de Decker L, Rouaud A, Boureau AS. Functional decline, long term symptoms and course of frailty at 3-months follow-up in COVID-19 older survivors, a prospective observational cohort study. BMC Geriatr. 2022 Jun 30;22(1):542. doi: 10.1186/s12877-022-03197-y. PMID: 35768781. https://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12877-022-03197-y (Full text)