Abstract:
Background: Accurate COVID-19 prognosis is a critical aspect of acute and long-term clinical management. We identified discrete clusters of early stage-symptoms which may delineate groups with distinct disease severity phenotypes, including risk of developing long-term symptoms and associated inflammatory profiles.
Methods: 1,273 SARS-CoV-2 positive U.S. Military Health System beneficiaries with quantitative symptom scores (FLU-PRO Plus) were included in this analysis. We employed machine-learning approaches to identify symptom clusters and compared risk of hospitalization, long-term symptoms, as well as peak CRP and IL-6 concentrations.
Results: We identified three distinct clusters of participants based on their FLU-PRO Plus symptoms: cluster 1 (“Nasal cluster”) is highly correlated with reporting runny/stuffy nose and sneezing, cluster 2 (“Sensory cluster”) is highly correlated with loss of smell or taste, and cluster 3 (“Respiratory/Systemic cluster”) is highly correlated with the respiratory (cough, trouble breathing, among others) and systemic (body aches, chills, among others) domain symptoms. Participants in the Respiratory/Systemic cluster were twice as likely as those in the Nasal cluster to have been hospitalized, and 1.5 times as likely to report that they had not returned-to-activities, which remained significant after controlling for confounding covariates (P < 0.01). Respiratory/Systemic and Sensory clusters were more likely to have symptoms at six-months post-symptom-onset (P = 0.03). We observed higher peak CRP and IL-6 in the Respiratory/Systemic cluster (P < 0.01).
Conclusions: We identified early symptom profiles potentially associated with hospitalization, return-to-activities, long-term symptoms, and inflammatory profiles. These findings may assist in patient prognosis, including prediction of long COVID risk.
Source: Epsi NJ, Powers JH, Lindholm DA, Mende K, Malloy A, Ganesan A, Huprikar N, Lalani T, Smith A, Mody RM, Jones MU, Bazan SE, Colombo RE, Colombo CJ, Ewers EC, Larson DT, Berjohn CM, Maldonado CJ, Blair PW, Chenoweth J, Saunders DL, Livezey J, Maves RC, Sanchez Edwards M, Rozman JS, Simons MP, Tribble DR, Agan BK, Burgess TH, Pollett SD; EPICC COVID-19 Cohort Study Group. A machine learning approach identifies distinct early-symptom cluster phenotypes which correlate with hospitalization, failure to return to activities, and prolonged COVID-19 symptoms. PLoS One. 2023 Feb 9;18(2):e0281272. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281272. PMID: 36757946; PMCID: PMC9910657. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9910657/ (Full text)