Tag: long covid predictors

Predicting Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome from Early Symptoms of COVID-19 Infection

Abstract:

It is still unclear why certain individuals after viral infections continue to have severe symptoms. We investigated if predicting myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) development after contracting COVID-19 is possible by analyzing symptoms from the first two weeks of COVID-19 infection.
Using participant responses to the 54-item DePaul Symptom Questionnaire, we built predictive models based on a random forest algorithm using the participants’ symptoms from the initial weeks of COVID-19 infection to predict if the participants would go on to meet the criteria for ME/CFS approximately 6 months later.
Early symptoms, particularly those assessing post-exertional malaise, did predict the development of ME/CFS, reaching an accuracy of 94.6%. We then investigated a minimal set of eight symptom features that could accurately predict ME/CFS. The feature reduced models reached an accuracy of 93.5%. Our findings indicated that several IOM diagnostic criteria for ME/CFS occurring during the initial weeks after COVID-19 infection predicted Long COVID and the diagnosis of ME/CFS after 6 months.
Source: Hua C, Schwabe J, Jason LA, Furst J, Raicu D. Predicting Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome from Early Symptoms of COVID-19 Infection. Psych. 2023; 5(4):1101-1108. https://doi.org/10.3390/psych5040073 https://www.mdpi.com/2624-8611/5/4/73

Is Pulmonary Involvement a Distinct Phenotype of Post-COVID-19?

Abstract:

Background: COVID-19 infection often provokes symptoms lasting many months: most commonly fatigue, dyspnea, myalgia and mental distress symptoms. In this study, we searched for clinical features of post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) and differences between patients with and without pulmonary involvement.
Methods: A total of 282 patients with a mean age of 57 years (SD +/− 12 years) underwent assessment up to 12 weeks after COVID-19 recovery. The course of acute disease, past medical history and clinical symptoms were gathered; pulmonary function tests were performed; radiographic studies were assessed and follow-up examinations were conducted. Patients with and without detectable pulmonary lesions were divided into separate groups.
Results: Patients within the pulmonary group were more often older (59 vs. 51 y.o.; p < 0.001) males (p = 0.002) that underwent COVID-19-related hospitalization (p < 0.001) and were either ex- or active smokers with the median of 20 pack-years. We also managed to find correlations with hypertension (p = 0.01), liver failure (p = 0.03), clinical symptoms such as dyspnea (p < 0.001), myalgia (p = 0.04), headache (p = 0.009), sleeplessness (p = 0.046), pulmonary function tests (such as FVC, TLCO, RV and TLC; p < 0.001) and several basic laboratory tests (D-dimer, cardiac troponin, WBC, creatinine and others).
Conclusions: Our results indicate that initial pulmonary involvement alters the PCC, and it can be used to individualize clinical approaches.
Source: Bartczak KT, Miłkowska-Dymanowska J, Pietrusińska M, Kumor-Kisielewska A, Stańczyk A, Majewski S, Piotrowski WJ, Lipiński C, Wawrocki S, Białas AJ. Is Pulmonary Involvement a Distinct Phenotype of Post-COVID-19? Biomedicines. 2023; 11(10):2694. https://doi.org/10.3390/biomedicines11102694 https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9059/11/10/2694 (Full text)

Analyzing the Interplay between COVID-19 Viral Load, Inflammatory Markers, and Lymphocyte Subpopulations on the Development of Long COVID

Abstract:

The global impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection has been substantial, affecting millions of people. Long COVID, characterized by persistent or recurrent symptoms after acute infection, has been reported in over 40% of patients. Risk factors include age and female gender, and various mechanisms, including chronic inflammation and viral persistence, have been implicated in long COVID’s pathogenesis. However, there are scarce studies in which multiple inflammatory markers and viral load are analyzed simultaneously in acute infection to determine how they predict for long COVID at long-term follow-up. This study explores the association between long COVID and inflammatory markers, viral load, and lymphocyte subpopulation during acute infection in hospitalized patients to better understand the risk factors of this disease.
This longitudinal retrospective study was conducted in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in northern Mexico. Inflammatory parameters, viral load, and lymphocyte subpopulation during the acute infection phase were analyzed, and long COVID symptoms were followed up depending on severity and persistence (weekly or monthly) and assessed 1.5 years after the acute infection.
This study analyzed 79 patients, among them, 41.8% presented long COVID symptoms, with fatigue being the most common (45.5%). Patients with long COVID had higher lymphocyte levels during hospitalization, and NK cell subpopulation levels were also associated with long COVID. ICU admission during acute COVID-19 was also linked to the development of long COVID symptoms.
Source: Rivera-Cavazos A, Luviano-García JA, Garza-Silva A, Morales-Rodríguez DP, Kuri-Ayache M, Sanz-Sánchez MÁ, Santos-Macías JE, Romero-Ibarguengoitia ME, González-Cantú A. Analyzing the Interplay between COVID-19 Viral Load, Inflammatory Markers, and Lymphocyte Subpopulations on the Development of Long COVID. Microorganisms. 2023; 11(9):2241. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11092241 https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/11/9/2241 (Full text)

Predictors of Post-COVID-19 Functional Status Scale in hospitalized patients recovering from SARS-CoV-2 infection

Abstract:

Objective: The study aimed to investigate whether peripheral and inspiratory muscle strength and architecture, functional capacity, functional mobility, fatigue and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are predictors of the PCFS scale score in patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome who were hospitalized.

Design: A cross-sectional study included 69 patients (53.3 ± 13.2 years, 36 men) with post-COVID-19 syndrome. The following outcomes were assessed: peripheral (dynamometry) and inspiratory (manovacuometry) muscle strength, muscle architecture (ultrasound), functional capacity (six-minute walk test), functional mobility (Timed Up and Go), fatigue (Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy), HRQoL (36-item Short Form Health Survey) and functional status (PCFS scale).

Results: Functional mobility (β = 0.573; P < 0.001), vastus intermedius echogenicity (β = -0.491; P = 0.001), length of stay (β = 0.349; P = 0.007) and female sex (β = 0.415; P = 0.003) influenced the PCFS scale.

Conclusion: Functional mobility, muscle quality of the vastus intermedius, length of stay and female sex influence the PCFS scale score in this population. It is noteworthy that functional mobility is an independent predictor of PCFS scale.

Source: Dos Santos TD, Alves Souza J, Cardoso DM, Berni VB, Pasqualoto AS, de Albuquerque IM. Predictors of Post-COVID-19 Functional Status Scale in hospitalized patients recovering from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Am J Phys Med Rehabil. 2023 Aug 18. doi: 10.1097/PHM.0000000000002325. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 37594212. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37594212/

Long COVID in a highly vaccinated population infected during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave – Australia, 2022

Abstract:

Objective To characterise Long COVID in a highly vaccinated population infected by Omicron.

Design Follow-up survey of persons testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in Western Australia, 16 July-3 August 2022.

Setting Community

Participants 22,744 persons with COVID-19 who had agreed to participate in research at the time of diagnosis were texted a survey link 90 days later; non-responders were telephoned. Post stratification weights were applied to responses from 11,697 (51.4%) participants, 94.0% of whom had received >= 3 vaccine doses.

Main outcome measures Prevalence of ‘Long COVID’ – defined as reporting new or ongoing COVID-19 illness-related symptoms or health issues 90 days post diagnosis; associated health care utilisation, reductions in work/study and risk factors were assessed using log-binomial regression.

Results 18.2% (n=2,130) of respondents met case definition for Long COVID. Female sex, being 50-69 years of age, pre-existing health issues, residing in a rural or remote area, and receiving fewer vaccine doses were significant independent predictors of Long COVID (p < 0.05). Persons with Long COVID reported a median of 6 symptoms, most commonly fatigue (70.6%) and difficulty concentrating (59.6%); 38.2% consulted a GP and 1.6% reported hospitalisation in the month prior to the survey due to ongoing symptoms. Of 1,778 respondents with Long COVID who were working/studying before their COVID-19 diagnosis, 17.9% reported reducing/discontinuing work/study.

Conclusion 90 days post Omicron infection, almost 1 in 5 respondents reported Long COVID symptoms; 1 in 15 of all persons with COVID-19 sought healthcare for associated health concerns >=2 months after the acute illness.

The known The prevalence of Long COVID varies widely across studies conducted in diverse settings globally (range: 9%-81%).

The new In a highly vaccinated population (94% with >=3 vaccine doses), almost 20% of persons infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant reported symptoms consistent with Long COVID 90 days post diagnosis. Long COVID was associated with sustained negative impacts on work/study and a substantial utilisation of GP services 2-3 months after the acute illness; however, ED presentations and hospitalisations for Long COVID were rare.

The implications GP clinics play a significant role in managing the burden of Long COVID in Australia.

Source: Mulu Woldegiorgis, Gemma Cadby, Sera Ngeh, Rosemary Korda, Paul Armstrong, Jelena Maticevic, Paul Knight, Andrew Jardine, Lauren Bloomfield, Paul Effler. Long COVID in a highly vaccinated population infected during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave – Australia, 2022. medRxiv 2023.08.06.23293706; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.08.06.23293706 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.06.23293706v1.full-text (Full text)

Early Biological Markers of Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Abstract:

To understand the roles of acute phase viral dynamics and host immune responses in PASC, we enrolled 136 participants within 5 days of their first positive SARS-CoV-2 real-time PCR. Participants self-collected nasal specimens up to 21 times within the first 28 days after symptom onset; Interviewer-administered clinical questionnaires and blood samples were collected at enrollment and days 9, 14, 21, 28, and month 4 and 8 post-symptom.

Defining PASC as the presence of any symptom new or worse since infection reported at their 4-month visit, we compared viral markers (quantity and duration of viral RNA load, infectious viral load, and plasma N-antigen level) and host immune markers (IL-6, IL-10, TNF-a, IFN-a, IFN-g, MCP, IP-10, and Spike IgG) over the acute period.

In comparison to those who fully recovered, those who developed PASC demonstrated significantly higher maximum levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, infectious virus, and N-antigen, longer duration of viral shedding, and lower Spike-specific IgG levels within the first 10 days of the acute phase of illness. No significant differences were identified among a panel of host immune markers, though there was a trend toward higher initial levels of certain markers (e.g., MCP-1, IFN-a, and IFN-g) in those who went on to develop PASC.

Early viral dynamics and the associated host immune responses play a role in the pathogenesis of PASC. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the early biological markers from acute SARS-CoV-2 infection in the natural history of PASC.

Source: Scott Lu, Michael J. Peluso, David V. Glidden, Michelle C. Davidson, Kara Lugtu, Jesus Pineda-Ramirez, Michel Tassetto, Miguel Garcia-Knight, Amethyst Zhang, Sarah A. Goldberg, Jessica Y. Chen, Maya Fortes-Cobby, Sara Park, Ana Martinez, Matthew So, Aidan Donovan, Badri Viswanathan, Rebecca Hoh, Kevin Donohue, David R. McIlwain, Brice Gaudiliere, Khamal Anglin, Brandon C. Yee, Ahmed Chenna, John W. Winslow, Christos Petropoulos, Steven G. Deeks, Melissa Briggs-Hagen, Raul Andino, Claire M. Midgley, Jeffrey N. Martin, Sharon Saydah, J. Daniel Kelly. Early Biological Markers of Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection. medRxiv 2023.07.14.23292649; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.07.14.23292649 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.07.14.23292649v1.full-text (Full text)

Utility of Serum Ferritin for Predicting Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome in Patients with Long COVID

Abstract:

Objective: The most common symptom of post-acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is fatigue, and it potentially leads to myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS); however, a specific prognosticator is lacking. We aimed to elucidate the clinical characteristics of patients who developed ME/CFS after COVID-19.
Methods: In this retrospective observational study, patients who visited Okayama University Hospital for long COVID between February 2021 and March 2022 were investigated.
Results: Of the 234 patients, 139 (59.4%) had fatigue symptoms. Fifty patients with fatigue symptoms (21.4%) met the criteria for ME/CFS (ME/CFS group), while the other 89 patients did not (non-ME/CFS group); 95 patients had no fatigue complaints (no-fatigue group). Although the patients’ backgrounds were not significantly different between the three groups, the ME/CFS group presented the highest scores on the self-rating symptom scales, including the Fatigue Assessment Scale (FAS), EuroQol, and the Self-Rating Depression Scale (SDS). Furthermore, serum ferritin levels, which were correlated with FAS and SDS scores, were significantly higher in the ME/CFS group (193.0 μg/mL, interquartile range (IQR): 58.8–353.8) than in the non-ME/CFS group (98.2 μg/mL, 40.4–251.5) and no-fatigue group (86.7 μg/mL, 37.5–209.0), and a high serum ferritin level was prominent in female patients. Endocrine workup further showed that the ME/CFS group had higher thyrotropin levels but lower growth hormone levels in serum and that insulin-like growth factor-I levels were inversely correlated with ferritin levels (R = −0.328, p < 0.05).
Conclusions: Serum ferritin level is a possible predictor of the development of ME/CFS related to long COVID, especially in female patients.
Source: Yamamoto Y, Otsuka Y, Tokumasu K, Sunada N, Nakano Y, Honda H, Sakurada Y, Hasegawa T, Hagiya H, Otsuka F. Utility of Serum Ferritin for Predicting Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome in Patients with Long COVID. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2023; 12(14):4737. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12144737 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/12/14/4737 (Full text)

Ultra-rare RTEL1 gene variants associate with acute severity of COVID-19 and evolution to pulmonary fibrosis as a specific long COVID disorder

Abstract:

Background: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus that caused an ongoing pandemic of a pathology termed Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19). Several studies reported that both COVID-19 and RTEL1 variants are associated with shorter telomere length, but a direct association between the two is not generally acknowledged. Here we demonstrate that up to 8.6% of severe COVID-19 patients bear RTEL1 ultra-rare variants, and show how this subgroup can be recognized.

Methods: A cohort of 2246 SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects, collected within the GEN-COVID Multicenter study, was used in this work. Whole exome sequencing analysis was performed using the NovaSeq6000 System, and machine learning methods were used for candidate gene selection of severity. A nested study, comparing severely affected patients bearing or not variants in the selected gene, was used for the characterisation of specific clinical features connected to variants in both acute and post-acute phases.

Results: Our GEN-COVID cohort revealed a total of 151 patients carrying at least one RTEL1 ultra-rare variant, which was selected as a specific acute severity feature. From a clinical point of view, these patients showed higher liver function indices, as well as increased CRP and inflammatory markers, such as IL-6. Moreover, compared to control subjects, they present autoimmune disorders more frequently. Finally, their decreased diffusion lung capacity for carbon monoxide after six months of COVID-19 suggests that RTEL1 variants can contribute to the development of SARS-CoV-2-elicited lung fibrosis.

Conclusion: RTEL1 ultra-rare variants can be considered as a predictive marker of COVID-19 severity, as well as a marker of pathological evolution in pulmonary fibrosis in the post-COVID phase. This notion can be used for a rapid screening in hospitalized infected people, for vaccine prioritization, and appropriate follow-up assessment for subjects at risk.

Trial Registration NCT04549831 (www.clinicaltrial.org)

Source: Bergantini, L., Baldassarri, M., d’Alessandro, M. et al. Ultra-rare RTEL1 gene variants associate with acute severity of COVID-19 and evolution to pulmonary fibrosis as a specific long COVID disorder. Respir Res 24, 158 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12931-023-02458-7 https://respiratory-research.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12931-023-02458-7 (Full text)

The Renin-Angiotensin-System in COVID-19: Can Long COVID Be Predicted?

Abstract:

(1) Background: Co-morbidities such as hypertension and cardiovascular disease are major risk factors for severe COVID-19. The renin-angiotensin-system (RAS) is critically involved in their pathophysiology and is counterbalanced by both angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the functional receptor of SARS-CoV-2, and the kallikrein-kinin-system (KKS). Considerable research interest with respect to COVID-19 treatment is, thus, currently directed towards the components of these systems. In an earlier study, we noticed significantly reduced carboxypeptidase N (CPN, KKS member) activity and partially excessive angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE, RAS member) activity in the sera of both hospitalized (HoP) COVID-19 patients and a sub-group of covalescent patients, while in the majority of the probands recovering from the disease these values had returned to normal. The data had been obtained using bradykinin (BK) as a reporter peptide, which is a target of both CPN and ACE, and they were supplemented by serum proteomics of the same patient cohort. We hypothesized that the data could be indicative of Long COVID, which had not been fully appreciated at the time of our study.;

(2) Methods: The data were re-evaluated in the light of Long COVID. The recent literature on the RAS in COVID-19, antihypertensiva, and Long COVID was briefly reviewed.;

(3) Results: While the levels of the BK serum degradation products should return to normal concentrations during convalescence, this was not true for some patients. This could be due to persisting liver problems, because CPN is synthesized there, but also to a dysregulated RAS. This was not reflected in the levels of selected RAS/KKS serum proteins like angiotensinogen (AGT), although AGT correlated with disease severity in HoP. However, standard tests in routine patient care in Long COVID often come back normal, and it may be that BK degradation is specific in some pathophysiologies. Moreover, the HoP group was sub-divided based on the serum protein profiles and COVID-19 severity.;

(4) Conclusions: We point out two insights: 1) Sensitive technology such as omics methods might provide unexpected significant differences within the pre-defined patient groups of a clinical study. Those can only be explored, if the cohorts are large enough and properly matched with respect to the parameters known beforehand (e.g., age, gender, co-morbidities). 2) Results of the BK-reporter serum protease activity assay could be indicative of persisting liver problems and/or potentially of Long COVID. Clinical studies are required to test this hypothesis.

Source: König, S.; Vollenberg, R.; Tepasse, P. The Renin-Angiotensin-System in COVID-19: Can Long COVID Be Predicted?. Preprints.org 2023, 2023051298. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.1298.v1 (Full text available as PDF file)

Can Baseline IL-6 Levels Predict Long COVID in Subjects Hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 Disease?

Abstract:

The immune response to infection plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis of COVID-19, but several patients develop a wide range of persistent symptoms, which is becoming a major global health and economic burden. However, reliable indicators are not yet available to predict the persistence of symptoms typical of the so-called long COVID. Our study aims to explore an eventual role of IL-6 levels as a marker of long COVID. Altogether, 184 patients admitted to the COVID Medicine Unit of the University Hospital in Palermo, Italy, from the 1st of September 2020, were analyzed.

Patients were divided into two groups according to the IL-6 serum levels (normal or elevated), considering the serum IL-6 levels measured during the first four days of hospitalization. In our study, higher serum IL-6 levels were associated with a doubled higher risk of long COVID (OR = 2.05; 95% CI: 1.04-4.50) and, in particular, they were associated with a higher incidence of mobility decline (OR = 2.55; 95% CI: 1.08-9.40) and PTSD (OR = 2.38; 95% CI: 1.06-8.61). The analysis of our case series confirmed the prominent role of IL-6 levels in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, as predictors not only of COVID-19 disease severity and unfavorable outcomes, but also long COVID development trends.

Source: Giannitrapani L, Mirarchi L, Amodeo S, Licata A, Soresi M, Cavaleri F, Casalicchio S, Ciulla G, Ciuppa ME, Cervello M, Barbagallo M, Veronese N, The Comepa Group. Can Baseline IL-6 Levels Predict Long COVID in Subjects Hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 Disease? Int J Mol Sci. 2023 Jan 15;24(2):1731. doi: 10.3390/ijms24021731. PMID: 36675242. https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/2/1731 (Full text)