long covid economics – American ME and CFS Society

The SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic is the greatest threat to prosperity and well-being the US has encountered since the Great Depression. This Viewpoint aggregates mortality, morbidity, mental health conditions, and direct economic losses to estimate the total cost of the pandemic in the US on the optimistic assumption that it will be substantially contained by the fall of 2021. These costs far exceed those associated with conventional recessions and the Iraq War, and are similar to those associated with global climate change. However, increased investment in testing and contact tracing could have economic benefits that are at least 30 times greater than the estimated costs of the investment in these approaches.

Read the full text here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7604733/

Also see: The Economic Cost of Long COVID: An Update: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/cutler/files/long_covid_update_7-22.pdf

Source: Cutler DM, Summers LH. The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus. JAMA. 2020;324(15):1495–1496. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.19759. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7604733/ (Full text)

Relative to my earlier estimate with Lawrence Summers of the cost of long COVID of $2.6 trillion, the higher number here is higher: $3.7 trillion in total. The higher estimate is largely a result of the greater prevalence of long COVID than we had guessed at the time. There are about 10 times the number of people with long COVID as have died of COVID. Because long COVID is so new, there is uncertainty about all of the numbers involved in the calculations. Still, the costs here are conservative, based on only cases to date. The enormity of these costs implies that policy to address long COVID are urgently needed. With costs this high, virtually any amount spent on long COVID detection, treatment, and control would result in benefits far above what it costs.

Read the full text here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/cutler/files/long_covid_update_7-22.pdf

Note: See The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus for background.

Source: David M. Cutler. The Economic Cost of Long COVID: An Update. Harvard University.