Letter:
The recent paper by Vernon, et al.1 predicts that 4.5% of adult COVID sufferers in the United States experience subsequent onset of Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS). While the degree of ME/CFS onset is indeed significant, the figure of 4.5% cannot be justified from the provided data.
Vernon, et al. compute a male onset rate of 3.41% (107/3134, see Table 1 of paper) and a female onset rate of 4.91% (422/8600). They then take a weighted average based on the gender breakdown of their cohort, which is 27.7% male and 72.3% female, to arrive at 4.5% overall.
The problem here is that their cohort, which is nearly three-quarters female, is not representative of the adult gender prevalence of COVID in the United States. One can estimate the gender breakdown using the CDC Household Pulse Survey,2 which shows 61.6% of US adults having gotten COVID, 58.6% of males and 64.4% of females. These numbers are consistent with an assumed gender breakdown of the adult population of 48.3% male and 51.7% female, from which can be deduced an adult COVID breakdown of 46% male and 54% female, leading to an ME/CFS onset rate of 4.22%. While significant, this is less than the 4.5% published conclusion.
Source: Mirin AA. Rate of 4.5% Post-COVID ME/CFS Onset Cited in Recent RECOVER Study is Based on Biased Cohort. J Gen Intern Med. 2025 Jul 22. doi: 10.1007/s11606-025-09711-3. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 40696227. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-025-09711-3 (Full text)